No-confidence motion: Why PM Modi can bank on Naveen Patnaik’s support

Few eyebrows were raised when the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) announced that it would back the Narendra Modi government on the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition INDIA bloc. BJD chief and Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik, known for weighing his steps to the best interests of his state, has seldom in the past acted in conflict with the Union government. A similar decision had been widely expected this time too.

The BJD, which has 12 Lok Sabha MPs, has a declared stance of equidistance from both the BJP and the Congress. But recent moves indicate otherwise. For instance, the party’s support to the Delhi Services Bill in Parliament and attendance at the Parliament inaugural by BJD MPs despite ‘Odisha’s daughter of the soil’ president Droupadi Murmu being left out of the proceedings.

Some constituents of the INDIA bloc have come to identify the BJD as an ally of the BJP. In fact, efforts by Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee to rope Patnaik in for the Opposition platform against the BJP had failed to make headway. Now, by declaring support to the Modi government for the no-confidence motion, Patnaik has again shown that the BJP can count on him just in case the numbers fall short.

Patnaik’s overtures as a ‘friend in need’ could yield political dividends either way. Pinaki Misra, a Lok Sabha MP from the BJD, makes it clear why Patnaik is with the treasury benches on the no-trust motion on the issue of Manipur violence. ”Naveen Patnaik considers Manipur to be too sensitive an issue and one on which the entire nation needs to speak in one voice rather than the way it is being sought for discussion through a no-confidence motion. What is the purpose of a no-confidence motion when you (Opposition) don’t have the numbers and the conclusion is known?“ he asks. Misra believes the Opposition brought in the motion just to make the prime minister speak on the issue in Parliament, which in turn would only prove Modi’s oratory.

According to Misra, a better approach for the Opposition would have been to engage Union home minister Amit Shah into a debate and get the government to pledge on a charter of things to be done to resolve the Manipur crisis. Since Shah was ready to face questions, it would have been prudent to make him commit to taking some strong measures, feels Misra.

Misra’s opinion suggests Patnaik does not support stalling the proceedings of Parliament and bringing everything to a grinding halt, like it has happened in the past on the Gautam Adani-Hindenburg Research and Pegasus spyware controversies. ”That is no sign of a mature democracy. This (no-confidence motion) is lazy politics and a doomed exercise,” says Misra.

While this perceived policy of kowtowing the Centre may have invited snide remarks from the Opposition camp, a prudent Patnaik would choose to keep his state’s interests first. Throughout his career as Odisha chief minister and BJD chief, he has rarely be seen to have gone against the party ruling at the Centre. And the times he did raise his pitch, it was for the sake of Odisha, such as in 2019 when he blamed the Centre for depriving states, particularly Odisha, of several thousand crores by not revising the coal royalty. Or after Union Budget 2023, when he felt the allocations for housing for the rural poor and tribal welfare were grossly inadequate.

Misra claims the people of Odisha, who have given Patnaik five chief ministerial terms in a row, understand that their leader’s strategy is in the state’s best interests and are not complaining. And given his firm grip on Odisha politics and no declared national ambitions, the BJP too lets ‘Naveen babu’ be. Despite being the principal Opposition force in Odisha, the BJP has seldom shown any keenness to challenge Patnaik’s regime aggressively.

On the question of the Opposition coming together as a bloc to challenge Modi in the Lok Sabha election, Misra said the country needed a robust and vibrant Opposition for a healthy democracy. But he was noncommittal when asked if the BJD would like to be part of such a combine. “Naveen Patnaik will take the right decision at the right time,” Misra assured.

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