Opinion: No-trust motion - Battle for perception, not numbers

A no-confidence motion to make a prime minister speak on the floor of the House on an issue the Opposition wants him to - even for a quirky democracy like India, this is a first. Scoff at the politicians or our democracy. In the absurdity of the move lies the ingenuity of the politicians. And a quest for accountability in a democracy, whatever the colour of the agenda.

The no-confidence motion moved in the Lok Sabha, the Opposition’s last resort to compel Prime Minister Narendra Modi to speak on the ongoing Manipur crisis on the floor of the house, will come into play on Tuesday.

Ethno-religious violence erupted in Manipur on May 3 after the Supreme Court issued a notice to both the state and central governments, instructing them to make a decision on the inclusion of the Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribes category by May 30.

By July 20, the day the Parliament monsoon session started, around 150 people had died due to violence in Manipur. The Opposition was demanding an explanation on a corrective roadmap from the PM. Not outside, but in Parliament.

PM Modi broke his silence on that day, expressing deep shock and anguish over a harrowing video from Manipur. He reassured the nation that those responsible for such heinous acts would face the full force of the law. He added, “The video showing atrocities against women in Manipur is the most shameful. I’m pained and angered about the incident and I assure the people of the country that the guilty will not be spared and subjected to the severest punishment.”

But, this was not on the floor of the house, but inside the Parliament complex during his customary address at the start of a session.

PM Modi's history of public vs parliamentary speech

For the uninitiated, this may come as a paradox that PM Modi, the orator known for wowing crowds across the globe, is being not so subtly nudged to speak on an issue through a no-trust vote. I recall the 2014 election campaign, during which his sales pitch at rallies included mocking the-then prime minister Manmohan Singh as ‘weak’ and ‘voiceless’. Singh faced taunts of ‘Maun’mohan Singh (maun is a Hindi term for silence).

Over the last nine years, the PM’s speech footprint can be traced across the globe. In Parliament, he has spoken 30 times on different occasions. The number of speeches delivered by him outside Parliament during sessions outweigh them.

The indication is that PM Modi opted to speak directly with the public. There are just a few instances when he stood up to speak on an issue that was churning the polity or the Opposition wanted him to speak on. In fact, on numerous occasions during his term, the Opposition has taunted him for staying “maun” on critical issues.

In contrast, the not so flamboyant, almost reluctant to stay in the limelight, Dr Manmohan Singh spoke almost 70 times in ten years.

Does the frequency of Prime Ministerial speeches and interventions in Parliament in the last 20 odd years throw a political pattern? A comparison between two contrasting political personalities - Dr Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi - perhaps indicates that a prime minister low on political authority spoke more in parliament than in public, while a prime minister with supreme political authority in the government and his party, chose to speak more directly to the public than in Parliament.

Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi get compared often on varying issues. Their track record in Parliament has been a significant part of attrition between the government and the Opposition.

On May 20, 2014, Narendra Modi, elected as Member of Parliament for the first time, entered the building as PM designate. He was greeted at gate number 1 by BJP leaders Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari. He alighted from the car, walked to the start of the steps draped by a green carpet and kneeled down. The camera shutters, in multiple shot mode, went berserk. He bowed his head and touched the floor with it, in a display of reverence to Parliament and democracy.

He walked in to attend the meeting of the BJP’s parliamentary party, where he was to be elected its leader. Party president Rajnath Singh was waiting in the Central Hall. History was repeating for Modi.

Modi recalled he saw the Gujarat Chief Minister's office and the state assembly for the first time only after becoming the Chief Minister of the state in 2001.

Next, on May 28 this year, he inaugurated the new Parliament building and was seen doing the “Sashtang Pranam” to what he has described on numerous occasions as the temple of democracy.

Replying to the no-confidence motion would be the 31st odd occasion when the PM will be on his feet, speaking on the floor of the House. Almost half of these are for ceremonial or procedural moments in Parliament.

On Tuesday, the debate may be on the trust motion but he would be in a way, responding to the Opposition’s charge on an issue - Manipur violence.

This will make it a virtual first for him since the 2018 no-confidence motion. In the 17th Lok Sabha, he was there nine times. Four times to speak on the Motion of Thanks for the president’s address in Parliament, twice to introduce ministers of his council and speakers election and felicitation, and once to inform the house about the formation of a trust for the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

In the 16th Lok Sabha, his first term as PM - five times on the motion of thanks, four times to introduce ministers and twice on speaker election or felicitation.

On December 5, 2014, he spoke in the house on the “use of objectionable language by a minister”. A minister on his council, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, while campaigning for Delhi Assembly elections had made the “Ram-zade or Haramzade” comment. After uproar by the Opposition, the PM had pulled the minister for use of such language.

On December 19, 2014, he was back with a statement on India’s response to granting bail to a Pakistani national in the Mumbai blast case.

On March 9, 2015, he spoke on Jammu and Kashmir, and on April 23, 2015, on farmers’ suicides and the agrarian crisis.

On February 13, 2019, he spoke in a concluding remark at the end of the 16th Lok Sabha. But he didn’t speak about the Rafale deal which the Opposition had made the mainstay of their charge against him in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Silence on issues

Compared to this, in the 17th Lok Sabha, he spoke even less on pressing matters despite prolonged disruptions on issues like the three farm bills. He lost ally Shiromani Akali Dal. There were protracted negotiations with farm unions. Eventually, the government repealed the bills through an announcement by the PM on November 19, 2021. This didn’t happen in Parliament.

During the last budget session this year, the Opposition protested over the Adani issue and the government dug its heels seeking an apology from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi over his remarks made on foreign soil. The prime minister didn’t relent to demands for a statement from him on the Adani issue. This was similar to the government’s response to the 2016 demonetisation of currency notes. The PM didn’t offer a statement or clarification in Parliament.

For several months, India’s champion wrestlers were on the streets seeking action against the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) president, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, a BJP MP. The PM has responded with what is now his trademark silence.

In August 2016, amid widespread outrage on the issue of lynchings, the PM made a dramatic appeal to cow vigilantes to attack or shoot him instead of targeting Dalits. But, not in Parliament.

During the anti-CAA movement, he chose to speak at the Ramlila Maidan in Delhi on December 22, 2019. Referring to those protesting the Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens, he said, “Thrash my effigy with shoes to the content of your heart. Burn my effigy, but don’t burn the public property of the country. Vent your anger towards me.”

Post the Galwan clash at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh in June 2020, which claimed the lives of 20 soldiers, including the Commanding Officer of the 16th Bihar Regiment, the PM maintained a long silence.

He held a meeting with all Opposition leaders a few days after the incident and told the nation via a telecast that, “Neither anyone has entered our territory, nor has any post been taken over by them”.

Manmohan Singh never had a Modi-like majority. He ran a coalition government with most of the political authority wielded by parallel power centres like the Congress’ Gandhi family, the National Advisory Council headed by UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and multiple regional satraps.

He also faced diverse Opposition players uniting to target him. The Left was with him in 2004. But post signing of the nuclear deal with the US, the Left joined the Opposition and his dependence on UPA allies deepened. In 2008, over the 123 Agreement, the Left withdrew support. The efforts to cobble numbers led to the Cash for Vote Scam.

After that, on issues like Lokpal, opening up of insurance sector, and multi-brand retail, the Left joined hands in Parliament with the BJP and others, and the Opposition could dictate terms. And many a times, he had to stand up in Parliament and face the flak to defend his government.

He was the PM for 10 years. So, he addressed an equal number of motion of thanks. He was heard on 58 more occasions in a decade. To keep every MP informed about his government’s foreign policy moves, he spoke on 10 odd occasions on foreign affairs, including his visit to Russia, framework of Indo-China Border dispute resolution, Shanghai Summit, the G-8 meeting, IAEA Safeguards agreements and the diversion of rivers.

He stood up to reply to provide answers to MPs during the question hour. On issues of significance like regional disparities between states, privatisation on employment exchange, BPL criteria, river protection policy and quota in educational institutions, he made interventions.

The last five years of Singh were tumultuous in Parliament. Apart from the multiple scams, the Opposition found several ways to corner him. The idea was to portray that UPA was a weak government headed by a PM without authority.

Post the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, the Opposition was hostile. On December 11, 2008, the question hour was suspended for a debate on the issue. Minister of State for Home Affairs Sriprakash Jaiswal was battling the Opposition charge. Manmohan Singh intervened. After he had briefed the house, Leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha, late Arun Jaitley sought clarifications. House Chairman Hamid Ansari stated that under Rule 251, clarifications were not allowed. Jaitley had then said, “It has been a convention of the house. Each time a statement is made, PM is accountable to the house and he cannot shield himself behind a new practice.”

The NDA government has followed the same rule and Opposition has not been able to extract clarifications.

Manmohan Singh spoke on women’s reservation on March 9, 2010. When his government was facing Opposition fire on the appointment of the Central Vigilance Commission, he addressed the house on March 8, 2011.

On August 17, 2012, he took to the floor to calm the Opposition tempers by speaking on the exodus of people from North-East India from different parts of the country.

On August 27, 2012, he stepped in to present his side of the story on the Coal Allocation CAG report and on September 3, 2013, on the missing files of the Coal Ministry pertaining to the scam.

On August 29 and 30, 2013, economist Manmohan Singh spoke on the economic situation after the US Federal Reserve Bank tapered quantitative easing and devaluation of the Indian rupee.

On March 13, 2013, the Opposition made him speak about Italy’s refusal to send two marines to India for a trial.

In 2010, the entire Winter Session of Parliament was washed out as the government refused to give in to the Opposition demanding for a Joint Parliamentary Committee or JPC to probe the 2G spectrum allocation. Singh had stayed silent then.

No-trust votes as tools

A government can rule only if it has the majority numbers in the lower house. A no-trust motion is to test whether the government of the day has the confidence of the majority of the house.

The latest edition is the 28th in Indian history. Late Indira Gandhi, as Prime Minister, faced the most number of no-confidence motions as prime minister with 15 motions during her two phased 16-year tenure (1966 - 77 and 1980 - till her assassination in October 1984).

The first non-Congress government in power during the sixth Lok Sabha, led by Morarji Desai, faced two no-confidence motions. He won the first, but the second remained inconclusive and eventually led to the fall of his government.

The first motion intended censure a government came in 1963 in the tenure of the third Lok Sabha. Acharya JB Kripalani moved a no-confidence motion against the Jawaharlal Nehru government. The issue was Nehru’s faulty China policy. Motion lost as there were 346 votes against it and 61 for. But it wasn’t specifically to make Nehru speak.

Noted journalist Inder Malhotra, who had covered Indian Parliaments first no-trust motion in 1963, in an article more than a dozen years ago had said: “The emotional and usually eloquent discussion that lasted nearly 24 hours, spread out over four working days, all too often descended to a low level of petty personal attacks, sometimes bordering on the scurrilous.”

He cited that the fieriest of the half a dozen of powerful speeches made was by socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia.

Kripalani, who opposed the Panchsheel agreement between India and China, tried to corner Nehru on the issue. Calling it "nonsense", Kripalani called for breaking off diplomatic relations with China.

Lohia slammed Nehru. Attached by claiming that the government was spending on Nehru Rs 25,000 a day, and that even his dog needed security. He charged that the presence of BK Nehru, RK Nehru, General BM Kaul and other Kashmiris in the higher echelons of the government proved that Nehru was promoting nepotism. Finance Minister Morarji Desai, in his point by point counter, hit Lohia hard.

The debate continued for four days. 40 MPs participated in it. It ended on August 22, 1963, with Jawaharlal Nehru’s speech. Nehru had said that the motion was "a little unreal" and that the Opposition groups were in no position to replace the government.

Junking the motion, Nehru had said, “A no-confidence motion aims at or should aim at removing the party in government and taking its place. It is clear in the present instance that there was no such expectation or hope. And so the debate, although it was interesting in many ways and, I think profitable too, was a little unreal. Personally, I have welcomed this motion and this debate. I have felt that it would be a good thing if we were to have periodical tests of this kind.”

Less than a fortnight ago, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge made Assam MP Gaurav Gogoi rush to the Lok Sabha speaker to submit a no-confidence motion against the Modi government. His orders were to deliver the motion before 10 am so that it could get taken up on the same day. That’s what Rule 198 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Lok Sabha lays down.

This rush did cause heartburn among Congress’ allies in the newly minted opposition formation - INDIA. They complained that the Congress after agreeing to a collective motion went solo at the time of submission.

Number game for no-trust motion

The Opposition will enter the Lok Sabha on Tuesday knowing that it’s going to lose the number game. But their target is not the numerical climax, but the PM’s address just before the vote.

In the current house, the Modi government’s majority is brute. The BJP displayed the might of NDA numbers at the meeting of the alliance on July 18 to counter the Opposition’s Bengaluru meet on the same day. The 26 opposition parties under the INDIA coalition umbrella have a collective strength of 141 MPs in the lower house while the NDA paraded the might of 329 MPs.

Interestingly, PM Modi has been there in 2018 and done it. The Modi government faced a no-confidence motion in the Parliament in 2018. The BJP, on social media platforms, has been posting a small portion his remarks during a debate where he had said, "I pray to God to give you the strength to bring a no-confidence motion in 2023 also.”

In 2018, Rahul Gandhi was riding high with the Rafale aircraft deal charge and terms like ‘bhagidaar', 'thekedaar', and 'chowkidar' were in vogue. Rahul Gandhi and PM Modi slugged it out during the no-confidence motion that was brought against the NDA government.

The motion was brought forward first by the Telugu Desam Party, which was a part of the NDA, but had walked out of the alliance over his party's demand for special status to the then-newly-formed state.

The NDA won the no-confidence motion with consummate ease. The final tally was 126 for the motion and 325 against.

The 12-hour debate created a ground for a Modi vs Rahul Gandhi summit battle for 2019.

During the debate Rahul Gandhi alleged that the “PM looked nervous and was not being able to look him in the eye because he has not been truthful”.

Then, in an unprecedented antic, he surprised the PM and the nation. He crossed the floor of the house, walked up to the PM, and shook his hands. He then urged the PM to stand up so that the two of them can hug.

When the surprised PM did not stand up, Gandhi bent and hugged him. He went back to his seat, and winked and smiled at his UPA partners.

The Congress is ecstatic that just before the trust vote, Rahul Gandhi following a Supreme Court order in the defamation case, has got back his seat in the Lok Sabha. Party sources feel that Rahul Gandhi, whose political equity is up since the 2019 loss, will speak to set the tone against the government for 2024 and plant the party at the head of the Opposition pack. This is because Gandhi is the most prominent Opposition leader in the Lok Sabha at this moment.

In the current 537 member Lok Sabha, there are 208 non-NDA members. But, not all non-NDA players can be counted as Opposition. Parties like the YSRCP, BJD, BRS, BSP, TDP, AIMIM JDU and SAD stayed away from the Opposition meet. They, along with the three independents, represent a block of 63 sitting LS MPs out of the BJP fold or the INDIA grouping. The YSRCP and BJD had already announced their support to the government on the motion, which means PM Modi has the backing of 34 more.

A senior BJP minister in the government confidently said, “We will get almost 355 votes with a few absentees. The only hiccup can be a single MP party like the Mizo National Front.” This means the number of votes for the no-confidence motion may stay below the 200 mark.

A senior Opposition MP dropped an interesting hint on last Friday. He said, “The Opposition wants the debate. The BJP is looking forward to the result of the vote. What if the Opposition walks out just before the vote? The Opposition’s lack of numbers will get obscured.”

The BJP gains more than a victory on the motion. The motion will reveal that the opposition is far from united. It can go to the public with a template - Opposition tried to disrupt the working of the Parliament through a no-trust motion. Sources say that the party is banking on the PM’s oratory to put across its political point of view, paint the Opposition as a motley grouping of opportunistic dynasts, and provide a healing touch on Manipur.

Facing disruption, the government led by Home Minister Amit Shah, has stated on the floor that he is ready to answer a debate on the Manipur issue.

But the houses witnessed what is now a set pattern in the very session. In the last budget sessions, Parliament productivity plummeted. The slugfest between the Opposition demanding a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the Adani issue and the treasury benches over Rahul Gandhi’s remarks in London ruined the session.

In the session before that, the flashpoint was the December 9, 2022 border clash at Tawang.

In the last year’s monsoon session, proceedings were disrupted since the start. Opposition parties wanted immediate discussion on issues like price rise and GST. Then, pandemonium prevailed as 23 Rajya Sabha and four Lok Sabha members were suspended.

It’s a pattern now. There is one key issue on which the Opposition wants a debate and an answer from the PM. The government response has always been a yes to debate and a no to PM responding. It’s an unstated agreement to stick to their guns. The Opposition keeps up the disruptions and the government keeps pushing bills in the din.

It’s this tandem that is going to make the 17th Lok Sabha go down as the least productive. From its formation in 2019 till the budget season, there have been 230 sittings and there may be 30 odd more during the winter and next spring. That means, just 58 odd sittings each year. This will beat the record of the 16th Lok Sabha which recorded 331 sittings in five years.

Footnote

The Opposition, unfazed by the numerical odds stacked against it, says that the motion may lose but they will win the battle of perception triggered by the Manipur issue.

The government is upbeat that through PM Modi, it will surge further ahead in the battle of perception despite Manipur.

In a democracy, the government gets re-elected on the basis of a perception of how it performed over the last five years. The Opposition has a chance of being able to build a perception that despite being in majority in Parliament, the government failed to deliver.