Opinion: Opposition’s INDIA working on arithmetic, hoping for chemistry

By Rahul Shrivastava: Traditionally in India, most alliances and parties first get a name. Next, the acronym becomes a natural derivative. For example, the Congress-led alliance in 2004 was named United Progressive Alliance. And thus, the acronym UPA. The Bharatiya Jana Sangh made way for Bharatiya Janata Party and thus the BJP.

In October 1997, a few Congressmen, unhappy with the mothership, formed the Akhil Bharatiya Loktantrik Congress or ABLC in Lucknow and joined hands with the Kalyan Singh government. They retained Congress in the party’s name and to improve their sales pitch, added Loktantrik (democratic).

The Telangana Chief Minister developed national ambitions sometime last year. Telangana Rashtra Samithi was founded on April 27, 2001 by K Chandrashekar Rao. To reflect his national ambitions, he changed TRS into BRS or Bharat Rashtra Samithi on October 5, 2022. The party name started reflecting ‘Bharat’ from ‘Telangana’.

But during the meeting of 26 parties in Opposition in Bengaluru, the name - Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance - came later. And the acronym INDIA came first. The idea was to craft a battle template -- India vs the NDA. TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, after the Opposition alliance’s new name INDIA was announced, unveiled the war cry: “NDA, can you challenge INDIA.”

Sources say during the brainstorming session, there were many proposed names on the discussion table. The basic agreement was that the name of the alliance must reflect the idea of India. Left Front and others proposed WeForIndia. Then, there was Indian People’s Front, People’s Progressive Alliance and Secular Democratic Alliance. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar pushed for a name which in short would be IMF.

“The M here was a Hindi word which leaders from the south couldn’t understand,” a leader said. While the participants were discussing the pros and cons of each name, Mamata Banerjee, according to a member, proposed INDIA and she was instantly backed by MK Stalin, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. Rest is history.

Many of us standing outside the meeting venue had, in fact, heard about Opposition alliance getting christened INDIA some months back. Sources had claimed that it was born in the stables run by Congress former president Rahul Gandhi’s team.

On Tuesday, when we were reporting on the Opposition meet in Bengaluru, a leak had arrived claiming that chairman of the Congress Parliamentary Party Sonia Gandhi wanted a Hindi word instead of Indian in INDIA. But, it seems, her red flag was set aside as it would have changed the acronym and taken away its sting.

So now, the 26-party alliance will have to fight under the umbrella titled INDIA which stands for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

In the huge Hindi heartland, especially among those who don’t even have a nodding acquaintance with the Queen’s language, INDIA and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance will take a lot of effort explaining.

Then, alliance titles like UPA are easy to translate into Hindi and could retain the core idea behind it. In Hindi, it was Saṃyukt Pragatishil Gathabandhan. And the translation didn’t defeat the idea. But Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance translated into Hindi or any other language is a mouthful - Bharatiya Rashtriye Vikasheel Samaveshi Gathabandhan.

The name for the alliance was a low hanging fruit. Easy to arrive at and a solid example of gains made by those forging the alliance.

26 Opposition parties gained more than a name

For many journalists who had travelled from Delhi to Bengaluru, the meeting didn’t just provide news headlines. After a long time, there was the scent of a political challenge building up in the air. The BJP’s juggernaut, till the Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka losses, had gained a swagger of a winner which faced not even a credible arithmetic challenge. The counter chemistry was missing, barring pockets like Bengal, stitched by Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi.

A gripping electoral contest is the ideal four-course meal for a political journalist. Also, clear mandates that bring stable governments are good in a democracy but a contest between potent challengers is a sign of democracy’s health.

Coalitions are messy. The dynamics of their formation, their electoral outings, involving Machiavellian intrigue, juggling, intricate negotiations and muscle flexing, sharpen and test journalists and political spin doctors. Who all will get together, will they stay together, who will trump whom -- keep people on the edge of the seat.

The Opposition meet did add up the best till-date numbers of a formation against Narendra Modi. At least, on paper. The 26 participants have 141 MPs in the current Lok Sabha. That’s what matters. As nine of the 26 participants had zero MPs. Parties like the YSRCP, BJD, BRS, BSP, TDP, AIMIM and SAD stayed away. They, along with the four independents, represent a bloc of 63 sitting LS MPs out of the BJP fold.

That adds up to a total 204 MPs ranged against the BJP which, along with its allies, controls 329 MPs in a 537-member House. Interestingly, 25 of the 38 parties, which attended the NDA meeting as a counter to the Opposition meeting, have zero MPs in the current Lower House.

So cumbersome is the take-off stage of coalitions that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who played the host, commenting on the Bengaluru meeting, said, “Well begun is half done.”

Opponent BJP mocked and attacked the meet and its outcome. Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the charge by calling the coming together a conglomerate of the corrupt. He used the line - “ek chehre pe kayi chehre laga lete hain log” (people wear many faces) - a line from a song in the 1973 movie Daag, starring Rajesh Khanna.

Beyond the political opposition, opinion on the positives from the meeting should only vary in terms of degrees. The Opposition did manage a leap of hope despite the weight of multiple contradictions tied to their feet.

The Bengaluru meet was a step forward for the Opposition. On June 23 in Patna, there were just 20 odd parties present compared to 26 in Bengaluru.

Electoral rivals in Bengal like TMC, Congress and Left Front, National Conference and PDP from Kashmir, AAP and Congress in Delhi, Left and Congress in Kerala sat together talking alliance.

Before the first meet on June 23 in Patna, leaders like Mamata Banerjee had vetoed out proposal of a conclave in a Congress- ruled state. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who kickstarted the unite- the-opposition drive, ended up hosting the meet.

Reason - parties like TMC owe their rise to the decline of the Congress in their states and have had plans to expand further at the cost of the Congress. Allowing the Congress to be the pivot of a united Opposition was considered a strategic fault.

But Mamata Banerjee arrived in Bengaluru in Congress-ruled Karnataka. The Congress was playing host. It had its big guns driving the meet - president Mallikarjun Kharge, ex-presidents Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi -- to assert the party’s deepening interest in improving the Opposition unity index to take on Narendra Modi.

Significantly, NCP chief Sharad Pawar had said more than a year ago that no Opposition alliance can work or win without the Congress. Parties like the TMC never let the Congress settle down as the principle opposition party. But in Bengaluru, the eminence of the Congress in the opposition ranks inched closer to the pivot point. In a way that’s political justice as in the last one year, Opposition’s narrative has gained traction due to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and his concerted attacks on the Modi regime in India and foreign soil.

Sonia Gandhi’s presence was a smart tactical move. Of all the leaders in the gang of 26, Sonia Gandhi carries the heaviest political heft. If the likes of Mamata Banerjee don’t relish working with Rahul Gandhi due to his working style, Sonia Gandhi is considered a better deal maker. Her presence made a difference even before the meet at the pre-conclave dinner.

Mamata Banerjee was not supposed to spend a lot of time at the pre-meet dinner. But once she and Sonia Gandhi came face to face after almost two years, their chat lasted more than an hour.

In the post-meeting press conference, Mamata Banerjee, nudged by the likes of RJD’s Lalu Yadav, wasn’t her belligerent self against her old bete noir - the Left Front. In her opening remark, she mentioned Sitaram Yechury and Raja. That’s the first time I have heard her mention the two Left Front members without being vitriolic.

Congress, the host, played its cards well. It provided prominence to the two initially reluctant entrants to the grouping. After Mallikarjun Kharge’s opening remarks, Mamata Banerjee was invited to speak. Next was AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal.

The Congress had stepped back to make way for Kejriwal’s entry into the alliance and on hoardings that lined every road of Bengaluru. He had hinged his participation to Congress’ support on the NDA government’s Delhi Ordinance in Parliament. Kharge announced a nuanced yes, signalling that retreat at times is tactical aggression.

The Mamata-Kejriwal duo decided to join in also because in the current climate, they need support. Mamata Banerjee, by joining in, has ensured that the national leaders of the alliance parties will soften their attacks on the large scale violence recorded during the recent Panchayat polls in Bengal. Congress support in Rajya Sabha improves the chances of the Delhi Ordnance bill that has weakened Kejriwal’s hold over the state bureaucracy. The Congress, too, can benefit. Kejriwal polled 12.92% votes in last Gujarat assembly polls to win five seats. The Congress was routed as it lost 60 seats and AAP was a factor in large number of constituencies.

AAP has big plans for the coming assembly polls in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The contest in 2018 Madhya Pradesh assembly was close. The Congress won 40.89% votes and 114 seats and the BJP 41.02% votes and 109 seats. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the Congress vote share was 39.30% with 100 seats and the BJP 38.08% with 73 seats.

Arvind Kejriwal’s entry can do a Gujarat in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But in lieu of “help” in Rajya Sabha in defeating the Delhi Ordinance, the Congress can strike a tactical deal with Kejriwal in the two states and maybe, work out an arrangement in 2024 for the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.

The Congress’ bonhomie with the TMC and AAP comes despite the uproar in the party’s Bengal, Delhi and Punjab units. The Mamata-Kejriwal duo has decimated the Congress in the three states and their expansion plan includes taking on the party in newer territories. That kid gloves on the Congress hand indicates that the grand old party has buried its big brother attitude to smaller parties and is focusing on the Lok Sabha polls and defeating Modi.

I have maintained since 2018 that to defeat Narendra Modi, the Congress has to pick its main target between attempting to make Rahul Gandhi the next prime minister and defeating Narendra Modi. At the meet, the Congress was signalling defeating Modi could be its prime target.

CPI (M) Secretary-General Sitaram Yechury, during a conversation after the meeting, outlined another understanding the partners in the alliance have arrived at. And this could be the modus operandi of the alliance. He said, “Alliance will contest the 2024 national election with tie-ups worked out at the state level. The idea is to minimise the contests between the members of the alliance.”

Another alliance member said coordination committees, including members of alliance partners, will be set up in each state to work out the tie-ups. “The committees will go through past elections’ data to generate a map of seats where the candidate of an alliance partner best suited to defeat the BJP will be backed by other member who has lesser chance of challenging the rival,” he said.

However, beneath the surface during the two days in Bengaluru, I could feel one significant shift. And that was the palpable determination that the party leaders displayed to stay together. Rajdeep Sardesai, in one of his remarks, was accurate when he said, “There is a sense of desperation that is bringing them together.”

Math in the works, what about chemistry?

The BJP must have worked out, by now, every bit of contradiction between the INDIA alliance partners and will start using them.

It’s a fact. There are a large number of contradictions and each one of them has multiple onion-like layers. Many players may end up being “frenemies” of a new kind.

At the meeting, the players named their alliance and resolved to present an “alternative political, social and economic agenda” to counter the BJP. Fearing it was too early to discuss seat-sharing formulae, a decision was deferred. The agreement was that they would approach the matter “step by step” and seat-sharing at a state-to-state level will be entrusted to inter-party coordination committees in each state.

A decision on a convenor too was postponed without any deadline being fixed. The idea of a PM face was junked.

And in a battle for which the BJP has Narendra Modi’s persona and chemistry, the absence of a face can prove critical. In the last nine years, election after election Brand Modi has proved to be draped in a Teflon coating.

But Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka assembly polls have proved the limitations of Modi magic. Right after the Karnataka loss, an editorial in the Organiser, the mouthpiece of the BJP’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), had stated: “For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is the right time to take stock of the situation. Without strong leadership and effective delivery at the regional level, Prime Minister Modi’s charisma and Hindutva as an ideological glue would not be sufficient.”

This was no ordinary remark. The Opposition derived hope from it. And with hope, aspirations have taken wings.

Though Rahul Gandhi is Congress’ chosen one for the job, all will depend on whether he gets relief from the apex court and gets to contest in 2024. Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal have charisma and there is no reason why they should not have an ambition to rise to the top job.

Nitish Kumar has been waiting to get a “sherwani” stitched for the swearing-in ceremony for very long. His ally in Bihar, RJD’s Lalu Yadav can’t contest 2024 and will back Nitish. Why? Because Nitish Kumar, in the past, has changed allies to remain Chief Minister. And is expected to vacate that chair for Lalu’s son Tejashwi, only after he has read the PM’s oath.

The gathering was tipped to finalise a Common Minimum Programme or CMP. But the final joint statement called ‘Saamuhik Sankalp’, stated that they identified Common Issues or CITA to attack the BJP through a consultative, democratic and participative approach.

One day after the meeting, there were subtle hints from the JD(U) camp that Nitish Kumar was not happy with the acronym INDIA as well as the Congress’ attempt to grab the controls of the alliance. His partymen issued strong denials. But in Patna, political observers noticed and dissected two developments.

The man who spearheaded the ‘unite-the-opposition’ drive met Opposition leaders all over the country and hosted the first meeting, skipped the press conference by INDIA leaders in Bengaluru. Next after returning from Karnataka, he left for Nalanda. A Patna-based journalist, familiar with Nitish Kumar’s traits, said, “Each time, he wants to make a point, he leaves for Nalanda.”

Some leaders in INDIA claim Nitish Kumar may be miffed as he expected a quick decision on him being appointed the convenor of the alliance. “His situation is delicate. Once if he does get the convenor’s post, the RJD may start getting restive for a handover of the baton to Tejashwi,” a political commentator on Bihar said.

Then even before the ink on the Bengaluru Joint Statement could dry, red flags were up. Contradictions were out. To nip the possibilities of a confusion on his party’s position on TMC in Bengal, Sitaram Yechury said, “Alliances will be at the state level. We will try to minimise chances of contesting against each other. But in Bengal, it will be a TMC vs BJP vs Left Front-Congress contest. We will fight against the TMC there. And in Kerala, we will fight the Congress.”

The battle in Bengal is a classic contradiction to an alliance. Mamata Banerjee has looted the cadres, leaders, voters and seats that once belonged to the Left and the Congress. In a clever tactical move, she has made Bengal a TMC vs BJP battle.

In the recent Panchayat polls, TMC won nearly 35,000 seats; BJP, a far second, could get 9,500 odd and the Left-Cong 5,300 odd. In the 2021 assembly polls, TMC won 215 seats, BJP 77 (up by 74 seats) and the CPI (M) 1. The Congress recently won a by-poll but the winner defected to the TMC. In Lok Sabha, TMC bagged 22, BJP 18 and Congress 2. The Left, which ruled the state for seven consecutive terms from 1977–2011 (five with Jyoti Basu as Chief Minister and two under Buddhadeb Bhattacharya), lost all seats contested.

Making room for one another in electoral contests will not be easy for fierce rivals for decades. If in 2024, Modi magic falters and the Opposition has a chance, a Mamata Banerjee would like to be there with more than 22 seats won last time.

Even if there is a tactical alliance between the TMC-Left-Congress, will she help the Left-Congress combine to challenge the BJP in the 18 seats it won in 2019? Or would she ask the Left and Congress to help her snatch some seats from the BJP.

Delhi is no different. In 2019, BJP won all seven Lok Sabha seats with 56.8% vote share. AAP and Congress polled 22.5% and 18% votes. If they pool in their resources, BJP will feel the heat in 2024. But then in 2025 Delhi assembly elections, will Kejriwal continue the alliance and help Congress make a comeback from zero seats won in 2020?

Uttar Pradesh, the state with a whopping 80 seats, will be the litmus test. The Samajwadi Party won just five seats in Lok Sabha while its alliance partner BSP won 10. Akhilesh Yadav, in 2017, tied up with Rahul Gandhi. SP won 47 seats, down 224 in 2012. Congress won seven.

Even if the Congress and SP strike a tactical alliance, UP will witness a three cornered BJP vs BSP vs Congress-SP contest. This will mean division in the anti-BJP vote. Plus Akhilesh Yadav, to improve his tally, may use the Congress’ 2019 outing (Congress won 1 seat and Rahul Gandhi lost Amethi) as base and ask the Congress to agree to not many seats.

In Bihar, the JD (U) fought 2019 with the BJP and secured 16 of the 17 of the state’s 40 seats contested. In 2024, fighting with the RJD and the Congress, Nitish Kumar may not get 17 seats to contest. Lesser seats won may translate into lesser chances of getting the top job.

The BJP has weakened the players in the alliance. It stole the (Eknath) Shinde Sena from the Shiv Sena last year. And just a fortnight ago, the saffron party lured away Ajit Pawar and his men from Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The move may hurt the BJP in the state but its rival MVA stands weakened.

Then, most players in the Opposition alliance are regional satraps with little influence outside their states. Arvind Kejriwal is India’s first regional leader to win a second state. Mamata Banerjee campaigned for Akhilesh Yadav in UP assembly polls in 2022. That didn’t benefit the SP. Similarly, MK Stalin can’t help the electoral fortunes of any of his allies in any other state.

The Congress is the only party which has the wider footprint to take on the BJP. But in 2019, the BJP decimated its arch rival in almost 90 per cent direct contests.

In 2014, both were in a direct fight -- in position one or two -- in 189 seats: BJP won in 166, a strike rate of 88 per cent.

In 2019, there were 192 such seats, and the BJP won 176, that is 92 per cent of the seats.

In fact, the NDA won 298 of the 330 seats in north and north-west states. The BJP’s thickest harvest of 255 came from this region.

In Rajasthan, Gujarat, Himachal and Uttarakhand, the BJP scored a clean sweep.

And in 2024, in many of these states, the alliance partners can’t come to the aid of the party against the BJP because they have zero influence.

Not just seats but issues divide

The Bengaluru joint statement was silent on issues like the latest divisive agendas like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC).

The BJP will encash it in 2024. But the Opposition alliance is split on it. The Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena can’t oppose it.

Arvind Kejriwal’s party has already announced its support to the proposed law in principle while calling for a wider consultation with religious leaders and other stakeholders concerned.

The Savarkar issue has the potential to drive a wedge between Rahul Gandhi and Uddhav Thackeray. While Rahul Gandhi has chosen to attack businessman Gautam Adani’s empire, NCP chief Sharad Pawar is known to back the corporates.

The Congress is shifting to soft Hindutva unabashedly to counter the BJP in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. And that may not please the Left Front parties.

Congress revival key to Opposition battle

In the absence of a sharp narrative and a visible leader of the coalition, a lot will depend on how the Congress performs in 2024. The mandate of the coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will be a major indicator. A Congress win in two of the three states will push up the Congress equity. A BJP win in these states will be a setback for the alliance. In 1996, the Opposition led by the United Front came to power only because the Congress had won 140 odd seats.

To beat Modi, the Congress is in an accommodative mood. But it needs to contest a large number of seats to emerge as a good number one or two. Will the alliance partners cede ground?

One of the participants at the Bengaluru meet said, “The Congress continues to remain weak in nine states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, where the BJP and regional parties have taken commanding positions. These states account for 291 parliamentary seats. Here, the new allies will expect the Congress to make sacrifices.”

In the 52 seats the Congress won in 2019, the median margin of victory recorded was 8.6 per cent, five percentage points lower than the 13.6 per cent for the 44 seats in 2014.

In 2019, the Congress was either winner or runner up - in 262 seats, six down compared to 268 in 2014 and 350 in 2009.

In 141, the Congress was placed either third or fourth. In 16 states and Union Territories, the Congress did not get even one seat: Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, Delhi, Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Nagaland, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh.

Compared to 2019, Rahul Gandhi has improved his traction in the last one year. Then he was more popular than Modi in three southern states. If the Supreme Court frees him in the defamation case, he can lead the Congress from the front.

The Macro picture

Top leaders, after the meeting, candidly admitted that absolute pure unity will be difficult to achieve. And that’s why the alliance is in no rush to get into the messy business of projecting a unified PM face, a convenor for the alliance or seat sharing.

Those are high hanging fruit.

Strategy is based on a calculation that players in the alliance can be divided into three categories - states where it is Congress vs BJP, states where it is Congress vs members of India Alliance like UP, Delhi, Kerala, Punjab and Bengal, and states where Congress and allies are united like Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand.

That makes seat sharing less significant for this alliance. I feel the alliance partners will be using INDIA most for amplifying a narrative all over the country to counter the BJP. The NDA has a three pronged staple campaign - polarisation involving changing templates on majority Hindus and minorities, social engineering that includes backwards, Dalits, and tribals and beneficiaries.

The Opposition, it seems, has built an alliance not for grand electoral adjustments against the BJP, but for its campaign against the saffron party.

The Opposition realises that it has no leader with chemistry that Modi commands. And that’s why it is not ready to make it a summit battle. “The mantra is for national fight on local,” a Congress leader said.

I believe that to win in 2024, the Opposition needs Narendra Modi to make mistakes. Ten years is a long time in Indian politics. Even the best of the governments and strategists make mistakes.

Anti-incumbency is a natural phenomena. And the only way the Opposition can gain what Modi loses is by staying united and getting the chemistry and arithmetic right.

And that’s going to be a long haul.